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Vitoria

€38.30m

2 May17:30
4 : 1

Coritiba

€36.00m

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Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction Serie A

Vitoria vs Coritiba prediction: value angles for Barradão

If you’re looking for a clear, friendly guide to the Vitoria vs Coritiba prediction, this one has plenty to chew on before kick-off at 22:30 GMT on 2026-05-02. It’s Round 14 of the Brasileirão Série A, played at Estádio Manoel Barradas (Barradão) in Salvador, with Premiere holding the broadcast rights.

Setting the scene: form, table spots, and game plans

On paper, this is a neat contrast in styles and comfort zones. Coritiba arrive 7th with 19 points, and their away record has been a big reason why: they’ve been among the better visiting sides, with a solid mix of wins and draws on the road. The catch is momentum. They’ve gone three away games without a win and recently left themselves annoyed after slipping up at Grêmio.

Vitória sit 13th on 15 points and have leaned heavily on home strength. Barradão has been a bit of a lockbox defensively, helping them win four of six home matches so far. They’re also trying to shake off two results that didn’t move the mood much: a 0-0 at home versus Corinthians, then a 3-1 loss away to Athletico Paranaense.

Team news that can swing the betting odds

Coritiba’s coach Fernando Seabra has a real selection headache, and not the fun kind. Discipline issues from the last match mean three important absences, which matters when you’re trying to get a result away from home.

  • Bruno Melo is suspended after a red card.
  • Jacy is also suspended after a red card.
  • Breno Lopes (one of their better goal contributions) misses out due to yellow-card accumulation.

The likely fixes are pragmatic: Felipe Jonatan to cover the left side, Tiago Cóser to fill a center-back role, and Joaquín Lavega to help replace Breno Lopes higher up. In attack, the plan still funnels through Pedro Rocha, Coritiba’s main scorer and reference point this season. Squad value is close too (€38.30m for Vitória vs €36.00m for Coritiba), so those suspensions may feel bigger than the numbers suggest.

Recent surprises worth remembering

  • Vitória’s 1-1 away draw at Bahia (2026-03-11) was a useful reminder they can grind results when priced as outsiders.
  • Coritiba’s 0-0 away at Santos (2026-04-22) showed they can shut games down even when a win looks unlikely.

Vitoria vs Coritiba prediction: AI picks, markets, and a smart slip

Now for the betting side. The 1X2 betting odds are: Home 2.2, Draw 3.2, Away 3.75. Our read lines up with the home edge: the most likely 1X2 outcome is Vitória to win (confidence 7.9) at 2.2. Still, if you prefer safety over swagger, NerdyTips’ AI points to 1X (Vitória win or draw) with trust 8.5/10 at 1.3.

Game flow projections support that: Vitória are expected to have 56% possession, with a 13–10 shot edge and 4–3 on target. That’s not total dominance, but it’s the kind of steady pressure that often turns into the first goal at Barradão.

  • Best safer tip: 1X at 1.3 (trust 8.5/10).
  • Main value lean: Vitória to win at 2.2 (confidence 7.9).
  • Total goals angle: Under 3.75 goals at 1.25 (confidence 6.4).

For total goals, Under 3.75 fits the story: Vitória’s home defense, Coritiba’s missing pieces, and a forecast of just five corners plus a tidy 2–2 split in yellow cards. Our AI’s correct-score call is 2-1, with Vitória leading 1-0 at the break. That also makes sense if Coritiba’s patched-up back line holds for a while, then concedes under sustained pressure, before finding one reply late (because football loves drama more than bettors do).

For anyone searching the Vitoria vs Coritiba Prediction with a “head to head” mindset, the key isn’t history as much as context: home strength vs away resilience, and suspensions tilting the balance. If you want one bet to build around, 1X is the sensible base; if you want a punchier price, the home win is where the upside lives.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Vitoria vs Coritiba

1X -333

Vitoria to win or draw with odds of -333
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 120

Vitoria is expected to win with odds of 120
7/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -526

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes 110

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -238

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
6/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

0.89
xG
0.8
56%
Ball Possession
44%
13
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots Off Goal
5
2
Corners
3
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

0.67
Expected Goals
0.83
3.2
Total Goals
1.7
1.7
Goals Scored
1
1.5
Goals Against
0.7
43%
Possession
40%
9.7
Total Shots
9.8
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.2
3.5
Shots off Goal
4.4
11.7
Fouls
12.6
2.8
Corners
3.3
1.8
Offsides
1.7
2.7
Yellow Cards
2.3
345
Total Passes
315

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
9
Over 1.5 Goals
6
7
Over 2.5 Goals
1
4
Over 3.5 Goals
1
7
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
2
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Vitoria
4 - 4 - 4
Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 22-Sep-21
0:0
Coritiba Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 12-Oct-13
2:1
Coritiba Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 19-Nov-14
1:1
Coritiba Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 30-Nov-19
1:2
Coritiba Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 03-Aug-16
3:1
Coritiba Coritiba
Vitoria Vitoria 28-May-17
0:1
Coritiba Coritiba
Coritiba Coritiba 23-Jun-21
1:0
Vitoria Vitoria
Coritiba Coritiba 28-Jul-13
1:1
Vitoria Vitoria
Coritiba Coritiba 21-Aug-14
2:0
Vitoria Vitoria

Profile time Recent Matches of Vitoria

15 MayW Vitoria Vitoria 2 Flamengo Flamengo 0
09 MayD Fluminense Fluminense 2 Vitoria Vitoria 2
07 MayW Vitoria Vitoria 1 Ceara Ceara 0
02 MayW Vitoria Vitoria 4 Coritiba Coritiba 1
30 AprD Confianca Confianca 2 Vitoria Vitoria 2
26 AprL Atletico P Atletico P 3 Vitoria Vitoria 1
23 AprL Flamengo Flamengo 2 Vitoria Vitoria 1
19 AprD Vitoria Vitoria 0 Corinthians Corinthians 0
16 AprW Vitoria Vitoria 3 Piaui Piaui 1
11 AprW Vitoria Vitoria 2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Coritiba

13 MayLCoritiba Coritiba 0 Santos Santos 2
09 MayDCoritiba Coritiba 2 Internacional Internacional 2
02 MayLVitoria Vitoria 4 Coritiba Coritiba 1
26 AprLGremio Gremio 1 Coritiba Coritiba 0
22 AprDSantos Santos 0 Coritiba Coritiba 0
19 AprWCoritiba Coritiba 2 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 0
12 AprDBotafogo Botafogo 2 Coritiba Coritiba 2
05 AprDCoritiba Coritiba 1 Fluminense Fluminense 1
02 AprDCoritiba Coritiba 1 Vasco G Vasco G 1
22 MarLAthletico-PR Athletico-PR 2 Coritiba Coritiba 0

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team M G P
1 PalmeirasPalmeiras1525-1234
2 FlamengoFlamengo1427-1230
3 FluminenseFluminense1525-2027
4 Sao PauloSao Paulo1521-1624
5 Atletico ParanaenseAtletico1520-1623
6 BahiaBahia1420-1822
7 RB BragantinoRB Bragantino1517-1820
8 Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1521-2120
9 CoritibaCoritiba1518-1920
10 VitoriaVitoria1418-2019
11 CruzeiroCruzeiro1520-2519
12 BotafogoBotafogo1426-2718
13 Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1518-2118
14 InternacionalInternacional1516-1618
15 SantosSantos1521-2218
16 CorinthiansCorinthians1513-1518
17 GremioGremio1515-1717
18 MirassolMirassol1416-2013
19 RemoRemo1516-2512
20 Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1414-279
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