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Osasuna

€100.50m

21 Mar12:30
1 : 0

Girona

€153.20m

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Osasuna vs Girona Prediction La Liga

Osasuna vs Girona prediction: numbers, nerves, and value

The Osasuna vs Girona prediction starts with a simple detail that matters in sports betting: this La Liga match is set for Saturday, March 21, 2.156, with 17:30 GMT kickoff at Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona. And while the betting odds lean slightly to the home side, the story behind this one is bigger than a price tag.

Osasuna at El Sadar usually means intensity, second balls, and a game played in tight spaces. They are rarely interested in turning matches into track meets, and that approach has recently delivered a statement result: on 2.156-02.151, Osasuna beat Real Madrid 2.15 despite massive pre-match betting odds of 5.1 for the hosts. That win did not come from magic; it came from commitment, compact defending, and being ruthless when the moment appeared.

Girona, meanwhile, arrive with their own headline. On 2.156-02.156, they beat Barcelona 2.15 at a huge price of 8.5. Girona have been one of the league’s most comfortable sides in possession in recent seasons, and they often look to build cleanly from the back, pull teams wide, then attack the half-spaces with quick combinations. Even away from home, they tend to keep their shape and keep asking questions.

Match context: tactics, head to head, and what may decide it

This fixture has already shown it can swing on small moments. In the last head to head meeting on 2.15-04-13, Osasuna edged it 2.15—a reminder that Girona’s style can be disrupted in Pamplona if Osasuna win duels and turn the crowd into a factor. Interestingly, the market then had Osasuna at 2.45 to win and Girona at 3.05, so bookmakers have again priced this as competitive.

  • Possession forecast: Osasuna 48% vs Girona 52%, suggesting Girona may have more of the ball but not total control.
  • Shot volume: 13 shots for Osasuna and 12 for Girona, a sign of a fairly even contest rather than a one-way game.
  • On-target edge: 3 on target for Osasuna vs 4 for Girona, hinting that Girona could create slightly cleaner chances.
  • Set-piece balance: 4 corners each (8 total), so dead-ball situations may matter for both.
  • Discipline: 1 yellow projected for Osasuna, 2 for Girona—maybe Girona doing more stopping of transitions.

There is also a clear squad-strength signal for bettors who like fundamentals: Osasuna’s market value sits around €100.50m, while Girona are listed at €153.20m. That does not decide a match at El Sadar, but it helps explain why Girona can travel with depth and still keep their style.

Osasuna vs Girona prediction: AI picks, odds, and best bets

For this Osasuna vs Girona prediction, NerdyTips’ model points to a game where Girona find a way onto the scoresheet and possibly take the points. The current 1X2 betting odds are 2.15 for a home win, 3.755 for the draw, and 3.7555 for an away win—tight enough that one goal could flip everything.

Best tip (recommended)

  • AS (away team to score): odds 1.42, confidence 6.4/10

This fits the underlying stats: Girona are projected for the higher on-target count (4), and 52% possession often translates into sustained pressure and at least one good finish—especially if Osasuna’s press leaves a gap behind it.

Secondary angles from the model

  • Over 1.5 goals: odds 1.31, trust 4.7
  • 1X2 prediction: Away win (2): odds 3.7555, trust 1.6

The lower trust on the away win is a polite warning: El Sadar is not a friendly place, and Osasuna have already shown they can beat elite teams as underdogs. Still, the predicted path is clear. NerdyTips projects a 0-1 halftime score and a 1-2 final, which matches the idea of Girona scoring first, then managing the game while Osasuna chase it.

In short: the betting odds say “close,” the recent context says “both can shock giants,” and the numbers say “Girona should score.” For sports betting, that makes AS the sensible play, while the bolder punt is Girona to win if you want a bigger price.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Girona didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Osasuna vs Girona

AS -238

Girona is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -238
6/10

1x2 Tip

2 275

Girona is expected to win with odds of 275
1/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -357

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -145

Both teams are expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 126

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

1.21
xG
1.69
48%
Ball Possession
52%
13
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
4
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.12
Expected Goals
1.66
3.2
Total Goals
2.3
1.7
Goals Scored
1.4
1.5
Goals Against
0.9
43%
Possession
54%
12.7
Total Shots
12.5
3.6
Shots on Goal
5.1
4.9
Shots off Goal
4.5
15.1
Fouls
11.5
4.1
Corners
4.4
1.8
Offsides
2.2
2.3
Yellow Cards
2.2
355
Total Passes
506

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
8
Over 1.5 Goals
8
8
Over 2.5 Goals
4
6
Over 3.5 Goals
1
8
Both Teams Scored
6
1
Unexpected Wins
1
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Osasuna
3 - 2 - 5
Girona
Osasuna Osasuna 21-Mar-26
1:0
Girona Girona
Osasuna Osasuna 13-Apr-25
2:1
Girona Girona
Osasuna Osasuna 04-Nov-23
2:4
Girona Girona
Osasuna Osasuna 04-Jun-23
2:1
Girona Girona
Girona Girona 10-Jan-26
1:0
Osasuna Osasuna
Girona Girona 29-Aug-24
4:0
Osasuna Osasuna
Girona Girona 09-Mar-24
2:0
Osasuna Osasuna
Girona Girona 14-Dec-22
1:1
Osasuna Osasuna
Girona Girona 23-Oct-22
1:1
Osasuna Osasuna

Profile time Recent Matches of Osasuna

12 MayL Osasuna Osasuna 1 Atletico M Atletico M 2
08 MayL Levante Levante 3 Osasuna Osasuna 2
02 MayL Osasuna Osasuna 1 Barcelona Barcelona 2
26 AprW Osasuna Osasuna 2 Sevilla Sevilla 1
21 AprL Athletic C Athletic C 1 Osasuna Osasuna 0
12 AprD Osasuna Osasuna 1 Real Betis Real Betis 1
05 AprD Alaves Alaves 2 Osasuna Osasuna 2
21 MarW Osasuna Osasuna 1 Girona Girona 0
15 MarL Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3 Osasuna Osasuna 1
07 MarD Osasuna Osasuna 2 Mallorca Mallorca 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Girona

14 MayDGirona Girona 1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1
11 MayDVallecano Vallecano 1 Girona Girona 1
01 MayLGirona Girona 0 Mallorca Mallorca 1
25 AprLValencia Valencia 2 Girona Girona 1
21 AprLGirona Girona 2 Real Betis Real Betis 3
10 AprDReal Madrid Real Madrid 1 Girona Girona 1
06 AprWGirona Girona 1 Villarreal Villarreal 0
21 MarLOsasuna Osasuna 1 Girona Girona 0
14 MarWGirona Girona 3 Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao 0
07 MarDLevante Levante 1 Girona Girona 1

Spain - La Liga Spain - La Liga

Team M G P
1 BarcelonaBarcelona3691-3291
2 Real MadridReal Madrid3570-3377
3 VillarrealVillarreal3667-4369
4 Atletico MadridAtletico3660-3966
5 Real BetisReal Betis3656-4457
6 Celta VigoCelta Vigo3651-4750
7 GetafeGetafe3631-3748
8 Real SociedadReal Sociedad3554-5544
9 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano3637-4344
10 Athletic ClubAthletic Club3640-5344
11 ValenciaValencia3639-5143
12 SevillaSevilla3646-5843
13 OsasunaOsasuna3643-4742
14 EspanyolEspanyol3640-5342
15 AlavesAlaves3642-5440
16 ElcheElche3647-5639
17 MallorcaMallorca3644-5539
18 LevanteLevante3644-5939
19 GironaGirona3537-5239
20 OviedoOviedo3526-5429
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