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Monza

€46.55m

24 Apr13:00
1 : 0

Modena

€34.25m

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Monza vs Modena Prediction Serie B

Monza vs Modena prediction: promotion heat at U-Power

The Monza vs Modena prediction writes itself as Serie B heads into the business end: Monza need points like oxygen, Modena need them like a good alibi. They meet on Friday, 24 April 2026 (18:00 GMT) at the U-Power Stadium, with clear skies expected and a pleasant 18–19°C—perfect weather for nervous energy and tidy passing.

Match context, form, and the human side of pressure

Matchday 36 brings the kind of table maths that keeps coaches awake. Monza sit 3rd on 72 points, level with Frosinone and three behind Venezia, so Paolo Bianco’s plan is simple: win, and keep the direct-promotion dream alive. Modena, 6th, are trying to lock down a playoff place, but arrive irritated after a 1–2 home loss to Frosinone where they scored first (Massolin) and still left empty-handed.

There’s also a reminder here that both teams can spring surprises. Monza once walked into Udinese at huge odds (6.55) and left with a 2–1 win in May 2025. Modena, meanwhile, earned a 0–0 at Napoli in August 2024 at a wild 14.25—proof their defensive discipline can travel.

Tactics and probable lineups

Bianco’s Monza are built to stretch teams wide and then slip runners into the half-spaces. Sottil’s Modena lean into a physical 3-5-2, hunting duels on the flanks and feeding a direct front two.

  • Monza (3-4-2-1): Thiam; Birindelli, Ravanelli, Carboni; Bakoune, Obiang, Pessina, Ciurria; Colpani, Caso; Cutrone.
  • Modena (3-5-2): Pezzolato; Tonoli, Adorni, Dellavalle; Beyuku, Massolin, Santoro, Pyyhtiä, Zanimacchia; De Luca, Pedro Mendes.

Team news tilts slightly toward the hosts: Carboni is back and expected to start, and Birindelli should be fine after a minor issue. Modena’s big concern is between the posts—Chichizola is still out, so Pezzolato continues in goal.

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and model read

The market has Monza as favourites: home win 1.5555, draw 4.2, away win 6.1. Our Monza vs Modena prediction agrees, but without pretending it’s a lock: NerdyTips’ AI recommends 1 (Monza to win) with trust 6.1/10 at 1.5555, matching the 1X2 model call (1, confidence 6.1, odds 1.5555).

How the stats connect (and what it means for bets)

  • Possession lean: 63% vs 37% suggests Monza dictate tempo, consistent with their wing-back width.
  • Chance volume: 13 shots to 8, and 4 on target to 2, points to a steady home edge rather than a shootout.
  • Total goals angle: Over 1.5 goals is predicted (trust 3.3, odds 1.33), fitting an expected 2–0.
  • Discipline/corners: 7 corners (4–3) and just 1 yellow each hints at a controlled match, not chaos.

Expected scoreline and best lean

The model’s expected final score is 2:0, with 1:0 at half-time—Monza getting in front, then managing the game. With squad values (€46.55m vs €34.25m) and Modena’s goalkeeper absence in mind, the cleanest play remains the home win, while over 1.5 total goals works as the safer companion bet.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Modena no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Monza vs Modena

1 -182

Monza is expected to win with odds of -182
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 -182

Monza is expected to win with odds of -182
5/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -370

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No -110

At least one team is not expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -238

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

1.43
xG
0.89
63%
Ball Possession
37%
13
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
2
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.4
Expected Goals
1.23
2.5
Total Goals
2.8
1.8
Goals Scored
1.4
0.7
Goals Against
1.4
52%
Possession
49%
13.6
Total Shots
13.7
4.4
Shots on Goal
4.5
5
Shots off Goal
6.5
12.4
Fouls
13.5
4.6
Corners
4.9
1.6
Offsides
1.2
1.8
Yellow Cards
1.6
425
Total Passes
375

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
3
8
Over 1.5 Goals
9
4
Over 2.5 Goals
8
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
4
Both Teams Scored
8
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Monza
1 - 0 - 0
Modena
Modena Modena 26-Dec-25
1:2
Monza Monza

Profile time Recent Matches of Monza

08 MayD Monza Monza 2 Empoli Empoli 2
01 MayL Mantova Mantova 3 Monza Monza 2
24 AprW Monza Monza 1 Modena Modena 0
17 AprW Sampdoria Sampdoria 0 Monza Monza 3
11 AprW Monza Monza 2 Bari Bari 0
06 AprD Catanzaro Catanzaro 1 Monza Monza 1
21 MarD Monza Monza 1 Venezia Venezia 1
17 MarD Reggiana Reggiana 0 Monza Monza 0
14 MarW Monza Monza 3 Palermo Palermo 0
07 MarL Spezia Spezia 4 Monza Monza 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Modena

12 MayLModena Modena 0 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 1
08 MayLAvellino Avellino 1 Modena Modena 0
01 MayWModena Modena 2 Reggiana Reggiana 1
24 AprLMonza Monza 1 Modena Modena 0
18 AprLModena Modena 1 Frosinone Frosinone 2
14 AprDCatanzaro Catanzaro 2 Modena Modena 2
11 AprDSudtirol Sudtirol 1 Modena Modena 1
06 AprLBari Bari 3 Modena Modena 1
21 MarWModena Modena 2 Mantova Mantova 1
13 MarWModena Modena 3 Spezia Spezia 0

Italy - Serie B Italy - Serie B

Team M G P
1 VeneziaVenezia3877-3182
2 FrosinoneFrosinone3876-3481
3 MonzaMonza3861-3276
4 PalermoPalermo3861-3372
5 CatanzaroCatanzaro3862-5159
6 ModenaModena3849-3655
7 Juve StabiaJuve Stabia3844-4551
8 AvellinoAvellino3843-5549
9 MantovaMantova3845-5746
10 PadovaPadova3839-4946
11 CesenaCesena3845-5646
12 CarrareseCarrarese3847-5244
13 SampdoriaSampdoria3835-4844
14 Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella3836-5142
15 EmpoliEmpoli3847-5441
16 SudtirolSudtirol3838-4841
17 BariBari3838-6040
18 ReggianaReggiana3836-5637
19 SpeziaSpezia3843-5935
20 PescaraPescara3851-6635
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