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Flamengo

€219.20m

19 Apr18:30
2 : 0

Bahia

€114.35m

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Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction Serie A

Flamengo vs Bahia prediction: smart bets for Maracanã

The Flamengo vs Bahia prediction for Sunday, 2026-04-19 (23:30 GMT / 19:30 Brasília) feels like one of those nights at the Maracanã where the ball moves fast, the crowd moves faster, and everyone suddenly becomes an expert in sports betting. It’s Round 12 of the Brasileirão Série A, shown on Premiere (PPV), with Flavio Rodrigues de Souza on the whistle.

It also matters that this is a top-of-the-table situation: both sides sit on 20 points with a game in hand, and Flamengo are 2nd thanks to goal difference. They arrive with extra confidence after a tough 2–1 win over Fluminense, the kind of derby result that usually adds a few percent to belief (and a few decibels to the stadium).

How the game may look on the pitch

From a tactics point of view, Flamengo at home usually try to lock the opponent in with long spells of possession and steady pressure. Bahia have shown they can be stubborn and dangerous when they choose the right moments to break, but they’ll need discipline to survive the first wave.

  • Venue factor: Maracanã often rewards teams that control territory and tempo, and Flamengo like both.
  • Squad value edge: Flamengo’s €219.20m squad versus Bahia’s €114.75m hints at more depth and match-winners.
  • Head to head notes: Flamengo won the last meeting on 2025-05-11 (1–0), but Bahia did beat Flamengo 1–0 on 2025-10-05—so this pairing has bite.

One more reminder that football enjoys jokes at our expense: Flamengo did pull a wild 3–3 away at Mirassol on 2025-12-06 despite huge pre-match prices. So yes, surprises happen—just not always on schedule.

AI picks, betting odds, and best angles to play

Let’s get to the numbers that shape this Flamengo vs Bahia prediction. The main betting odds are: Home 1.53, Draw 4.7, Away 8.0. NerdyTips’ AI agrees with the market and tags 1 (Flamengo win) as the best tip, trust 7.6/10 at 1.53.

Main bets to consider

  1. 1X2 prediction: Flamengo to win (1) @ 1.53 — Confidence 7.6/10. Strong home lean, supported by standings, squad depth, and control style.
  2. Under 3.5 goals @ 1.38 — Trust 4.0/10. Not as confident, but it matches the projected script: Flamengo control, Bahia resist.

Model match story (stats + score)

  • Expected final score: 2–0 (half-time 1–0)
  • Possession: 60% Flamengo, 40% Bahia
  • Shots: 15 vs 7 (on target 5 vs 2)
  • Corners: 4 vs 2 (total 6)
  • Cards: 1 yellow each

Put it together and the best reading is a controlled Flamengo win—fewer fireworks than a derby, more like a patient job done. If you’re building a sports betting plan, the safest route follows the AI: Flamengo in the 1X2 market, while Under 3.5 is a smaller-stake add-on given the lower trust. Always keep head to head volatility in mind, but the numbers say the hosts should have the final word.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Flamengo didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Flamengo vs Bahia

1 -189

Flamengo is expected to win with odds of -189
7/10

1x2 Tip

1 -189

Flamengo is expected to win with odds of -189
7/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -204

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No -102

At least one team is not expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -256

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
6/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

1.27
xG
0.95
60%
Ball Possession
40%
15
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Goal
2
4
Shots Off Goal
1
4
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.25
Expected Goals
1.53
3
Total Goals
3.1
2.4
Goals Scored
1.9
0.6
Goals Against
1.2
53%
Possession
58%
15
Total Shots
12.1
5.5
Shots on Goal
5.5
5
Shots off Goal
4.3
12.6
Fouls
14.9
4.6
Corners
6
1.8
Offsides
2.5
1.6
Yellow Cards
2.3
477
Total Passes
456

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
7
9
Over 1.5 Goals
9
6
Over 2.5 Goals
7
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
3
Both Teams Scored
7
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Flamengo
18 - 4 - 4
Bahia
Bahia Bahia 05-Oct-25
1:0
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 29-Aug-24
0:1
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 05-Oct-24
0:2
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 13-May-23
2:3
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 18-Jul-21
0:5
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 03-Sep-20
3:5
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 29-May-11
3:3
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 15-Jul-12
1:2
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 28-Sep-14
2:1
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia 04-Aug-19
3:0
Flamengo Flamengo

Profile time Recent Matches of Flamengo

15 MayL Vitoria Vitoria 2 Flamengo Flamengo 0
10 MayW Gremio Gremio 0 Flamengo Flamengo 1
08 MayD Independiente M Independiente M 0 Flamengo Flamengo 0
03 MayD Flamengo Flamengo 2 Vasco G Vasco G 2
30 AprD Estudiant Estudiant 1 Flamengo Flamengo 1
27 AprW Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 0 Flamengo Flamengo 4
23 AprW Flamengo Flamengo 2 Vitoria Vitoria 1
19 AprW Flamengo Flamengo 2 Bahia Bahia 0
17 AprW Flamengo Flamengo 4 Independiente M Independiente M 1
12 AprW Fluminense Fluminense 1 Flamengo Flamengo 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Bahia

14 MayLRemo Remo 2 Bahia Bahia 1
10 MayLBahia Bahia 1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2
03 MayDSao Paulo Sao Paulo 2 Bahia Bahia 2
25 AprDBahia Bahia 2 Santos Santos 2
22 AprLBahia Bahia 1 Remo Remo 3
19 AprLFlamengo Flamengo 2 Bahia Bahia 0
11 AprWMirassol Mirassol 1 Bahia Bahia 2
05 AprLBahia Bahia 1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2
02 AprWBahia Bahia 3 Atletico P Atletico P 0
22 MarLRemo Remo 4 Bahia Bahia 1

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team M G P
1 PalmeirasPalmeiras1525-1234
2 FlamengoFlamengo1427-1230
3 FluminenseFluminense1525-2027
4 Sao PauloSao Paulo1521-1624
5 Atletico ParanaenseAtletico1520-1623
6 BahiaBahia1420-1822
7 RB BragantinoRB Bragantino1517-1820
8 Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1521-2120
9 CoritibaCoritiba1518-1920
10 VitoriaVitoria1418-2019
11 CruzeiroCruzeiro1520-2519
12 BotafogoBotafogo1426-2718
13 Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1518-2118
14 InternacionalInternacional1516-1618
15 SantosSantos1521-2218
16 CorinthiansCorinthians1513-1518
17 GremioGremio1515-1717
18 MirassolMirassol1416-2013
19 RemoRemo1516-2512
20 Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1414-279
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