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Chelsea vs Nottingham F prediction: stats, tips and story
The Chelsea vs Nottingham F prediction for Monday, May 4, 2026 (15:00 GMT) is shaped by context as much as numbers. This Premier League game at Stamford Bridge was first set for Saturday, May 2, but it moved to the May Day Bank Holiday Monday after being picked for live TV coverage on Sky Sports. That kind of schedule shift can change routines, but it also raises the intensity: a big stage, a full house, and two teams who know that one good 90 minutes can make a season feel very different.
Match details, context and likely game plan
Chelsea return home with the kind of confidence you can’t buy, even with a squad valued around €1.16bn. Back on 2026-01-04, they went to Manchester City and came away with a 1:1 draw despite massive pre-match betting odds against them (win price around 6.0). Forest have their own “we can do this” moment too: a 2:2 draw away at City on 2026-03-04 at win odds near 8.0. So yes, both sides have shown they can frustrate elite opponents.
Tactically, Chelsea at Stamford Bridge usually want the ball early and often, using wide areas and patient build-up to pull opponents out of shape. Forest, with a squad value around €568.00m, are more comfortable absorbing pressure and looking for direct transitions, especially when the home side over-commits. That suggests a match where Chelsea probe, Forest protect the middle, and the first goal becomes the whole story.
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London
- Kickoff: 2026-05-04, 15:00 GMT
- Broadcast note: moved for live TV selection (Sky Sports)
- Head to head: last meeting on 2024-10-06 ended 1:1
Chelsea vs Nottingham F prediction: NerdyTips AI picks
Now to the numbers that drive smart sports betting. Our Chelsea vs Nottingham F prediction leans to the home side, and the markets agree: Home win 1.572, Draw 4.8, Away win 7.6. NerdyTips’ AI also points to “1” as the best 1x2 bet, with a trust score of 7.5/10 (odds 1.572). In simple terms, Chelsea are priced like the most likely winners, and the model is comfortable backing that.
Why the “Home Win” tip fits the match stats
The forecasts paint a control-heavy Chelsea performance: 64% possession, 15 shots to 8, and corners 7 to 3 (10 total). That profile usually wins games—especially at home—without needing a goal festival.
- Best 1x2 tip: Chelsea to win (1) at 1.572, confidence 7.5/10
- Best goals bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.48, trust 3.5/10
- Expected score: 1:0 (half-time 0:0)
Scoreline logic and small warnings
The model expects only 4 Chelsea shots on target versus 3 for Forest, plus just one yellow card each. That supports a calmer, tighter game where finishing matters more than chaos. The under 3.5 looks logical next to a 1:0 call, but the trust is modest (3.5/10), likely because Forest have already proved they can turn “defending all day” into a surprise 2-goal output. Still, with Chelsea’s volume advantage and home pricing, the best value read remains: back the home win, and don’t demand fireworks.
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Warning
Nottingham F has upcoming match in Europe
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Chelsea vs Nottingham F1 -175
Chelsea is expected to win with odds of -1751x2 Tip
1 -175
Chelsea is expected to win with odds of -175Total Goals
Under 3.5 -189
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
No 102
At least one team is not expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
1X&U5.5 -357
Home win/draw and under 5.5 goalsCorrect Score
1:0
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
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|
6
-
3
-
1
|
|
Latest Matches
 Chelsea |
06-Oct-24
1:1
| Nottingham F  |
| Chelsea |
02-Sep-23
0:1
| Nottingham F |
| Chelsea |
13-May-23
2:2
| Nottingham F |
| Chelsea |
20-Sep-17
5:1
| Nottingham F |
| Chelsea |
05-Jan-20
2:0
| Nottingham F |
| Chelsea |
05-Jan-19
2:0
| Nottingham F |
| Nottingham F |
18-Oct-25
0:3
| Chelsea |
| Nottingham F |
25-May-25
0:1
| Chelsea |
| Nottingham F |
11-May-24
2:3
| Chelsea |
| Nottingham F |
01-Jan-23
1:1
| Chelsea |
Recent Matches of Chelsea
| 09 May | D |
Liverpool
| 1 |
Chelsea
| 1 |
| 04 May | L |
Chelsea
| 1 |
Nottingham F
| 3 |
| 26 Apr | W |
Chelsea
| 1 |
Leeds
| 0 |
| 21 Apr | L |
Brighton
| 3 |
Chelsea
| 0 |
| 18 Apr | L |
Chelsea
| 0 |
Manchester U
| 1 |
| 12 Apr | L |
Chelsea
| 0 |
Man. City
| 3 |
| 04 Apr | W |
Chelsea
| 7 |
Port Vale
| 0 |
| 21 Mar | L |
Everton
| 3 |
Chelsea
| 0 |
| 17 Mar | L |
Chelsea
| 0 |
PSG
| 3 |
| 14 Mar | L |
Chelsea
| 0 |
Newcastle
| 1 |
Recent Matches Of Nottingham F
| 10 May | D | Nottingham F |
1 |  Newcastle |
1 |
| 07 May | L |  Aston Villa |
4 | Nottingham F |
0 |
| 04 May | W | Chelsea |
1 | Nottingham F |
3 |
| 30 Apr | W | Nottingham F |
1 | Aston Villa |
0 |
| 24 Apr | W |  Sunderland |
0 | Nottingham F |
5 |
| 19 Apr | W | Nottingham F |
4 |  Burnley |
1 |
| 16 Apr | W | Nottingham F |
1 |  FC Porto |
0 |
| 12 Apr | D | Nottingham F |
1 | Aston Villa |
1 |
| 09 Apr | D | FC Porto |
1 | Nottingham F |
1 |
| 22 Mar | W |  Tottenham |
0 | Nottingham |
3 |
England - Premier League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Arsenal | 36 | 68-26 | 79 |
| 2 |
Manchester | 36 | 75-32 | 77 |
| 3 |
Manchester | 36 | 63-48 | 65 |
| 4 |
 Aston Villa | 37 | 54-48 | 62 |
| 5 |
Liverpool | 37 | 62-52 | 59 |
| 6 |
 Bournemouth | 36 | 56-52 | 55 |
| 7 |
Brighton | 36 | 52-42 | 53 |
| 8 |
 Brentford | 36 | 52-49 | 51 |
| 9 |
Chelsea | 36 | 55-49 | 49 |
| 10 |
Everton | 36 | 46-46 | 49 |
| 11 |
 Fulham | 36 | 44-50 | 48 |
| 12 |
 Sunderland | 36 | 37-46 | 48 |
| 13 |
Newcastle | 36 | 50-52 | 46 |
| 14 |
Leeds | 36 | 48-53 | 44 |
| 15 |
 Crystal Palace | 36 | 38-47 | 44 |
| 16 |
Nottingham | 36 | 45-47 | 43 |
| 17 |
 Tottenham | 36 | 46-55 | 38 |
| 18 |
 West Ham | 36 | 42-62 | 36 |
| 19 |
 Burnley | 36 | 37-73 | 21 |
| 20 |
 Wolves | 36 | 25-66 | 18 |
