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Germany flag Germany

Borussia D

€498.40m

26 Apr11:30
4 : 0

SC Freiburg

€191.00m

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Borussia D vs SC Freiburg Prediction Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg prediction: smart bets

The Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg prediction for Sunday, 26 April 2026 (kickoff 16:30 GMT) starts with a familiar picture at Signal Iduna Park: Dortmund wanting long spells on the ball, Freiburg trying to stay compact, steal a few transitions, and make the home crowd slightly nervous before halftime.

Team context, form notes, and tactical match-up

Here are the latest updates, news, and broader details for this Bundesliga meeting between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg. Dortmund come in listed as 2nd in the table, and that matters because their matches at home usually carry a “must-win” tone rather than a “let’s see what happens” vibe. Freiburg, meanwhile, tend to be most comfortable when the opponent takes risks and leaves space behind.

Tactically, this looks like a game where Dortmund will try to pin Freiburg back with patient circulation and quick switches of play. The numbers we’re working with point that way: an estimated 68% possession for Dortmund, plus a corner edge (projected 7–2) that fits the pattern of sustained pressure. Freiburg’s best route is likely set pieces and fast breaks—especially if they can tempt Dortmund’s full-backs forward and then attack the channels.

  • Squad value edge: Dortmund (€498.40m) vs Freiburg (€191.00m) suggests deeper options and higher individual quality for the hosts.
  • Head to head: Dortmund won the last meeting 4–0 (23 Nov 2024), a reminder of how harsh it can get if Freiburg’s lines break.
  • Game-state feel: Dortmund have shown they can survive big moments away from home too, like that surprising 2–2 at Bayern in April 2025 at long odds—useful when a match turns messy.

Our AI betting tips, odds, and how to play it

Now to the NerdyTips numbers. The main market has Dortmund as clear favorites: 1.54 for a home win, 5.0 for the draw, and 7.5 for a Freiburg win. Our best tip aligns with that pricing: a straight home win.

  • Best bet (1X2): Home win (1) at 1.54, confidence 8.8/10
  • 1X2 prediction: 1 with trust 8.8 and odds 1.54
  • Goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 1.55, confidence 5.0/10
  • Correct score lean: 2–1 (HT 1–1)

Why the home win is the headline in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg prediction: projected shots are 15–9, and on target 4–3, which hints at Dortmund controlling territory but Freiburg still landing punches. That also matches the 2–1 script: Dortmund doing most of the pushing, Freiburg nicking a goal, and the hosts finding a decisive moment late—possibly after sustained pressure and another corner or recycled attack.

Over 2.5 goals is tempting at 1.55, but the confidence is moderate. The predicted 1–1 halftime score says “expect resistance,” not a runaway. If you want to be practical, the simplest angle is Dortmund to win. If you want a bit more spice, Dortmund win plus over 2.5 fits the projected match story—just remember Freiburg can be stubborn enough to keep the total on a knife edge.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

SC Freiburg has upcoming match in Europe

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Borussia D vs SC Freiburg

1 -200

Borussia D is expected to win with odds of -200
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -200

Borussia D is expected to win with odds of -200
8/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -182

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -133

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -345

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
7/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

2.37
xG
1.24
68%
Ball Possession
32%
15
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Shots Off Goal
2
7
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.86
Expected Goals
1.43
3.2
Total Goals
3
1.7
Goals Scored
1.9
1.5
Goals Against
1.1
51%
Possession
48%
11.7
Total Shots
13
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.9
4.8
Shots off Goal
3.8
11.1
Fouls
10.4
4.8
Corners
4.2
1.8
Offsides
1.9
2.67
Yellow Cards
2.1
459
Total Passes
403

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
6
9
Over 1.5 Goals
7
6
Over 2.5 Goals
7
4
Over 3.5 Goals
3
6
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund
23 - 4 - 2
SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 23-Nov-24
4:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 09-Feb-24
3:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 04-Feb-23
5:1
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 14-Jan-22
5:1
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 03-Oct-20
4:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 29-Feb-20
1:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 17-Apr-11
3:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 05-May-12
4:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 16-Mar-13
5:1
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund Borussia D 28-Sep-13
5:0
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg

Profile time Recent Matches of Borussia D

08 MayW Borussia D Borussia D 3 Frankfurt Frankfurt 2
03 MayL Borussia M Borussia M 1 Borussia D Borussia D 0
26 AprW Borussia D Borussia D 4 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0
18 AprL Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2 Borussia D Borussia D 1
11 AprL Borussia D Borussia D 0 Leverkusen Leverkusen 1
04 AprW VfB S VfB S 0 Borussia D Borussia D 2
21 MarW Dortmund Dortmund 3 Hamburger Hamburger 2
14 MarW Dortmund Dortmund 2 Augsburg Augsburg 0
07 MarW 1. FC Koln 1. FC Koln 1 Dortmund Dortmund 2
28 FebL Dortmund Dortmund 2 Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 3

Profile time Recent Matches Of SC Freiburg

10 MayLHamburger Hamburger 3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 2
07 MayWSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 SC Braga SC Braga 1
03 MayDSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 1 VfL W VfL W 1
30 AprLSC Braga SC Braga 2 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 1
26 AprLBorussia D Borussia D 4 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0
23 AprLVfB S VfB S 2 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 1
19 AprWSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 2 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1
16 AprWCelta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3
12 AprWFSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 0 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 1
09 AprWSC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0

Germany - Bundesliga Germany - Bundesliga

Team M G P
1 Bayern MünchenBayern33117-3586
2 Borussia DortmundBorussia3368-3470
3 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig3365-4365
4 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart3369-4761
5 1899 Hoffenheim18993365-4861
6 Bayer LeverkusenBayer3367-4658
7 SC FreiburgSC Freiburg3347-5644
8 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht3359-6343
9 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg3345-5743
10 FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 053342-5337
11 Hamburger SVHamburger SV3339-5337
12 Union BerlinUnion Berlin3340-5836
13 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia3338-5335
14 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln3348-5832
15 Werder BremenWerder Bremen3337-5832
16 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg3342-6826
17 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC3341-7026
18 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli3328-5726
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