1. Home
  2. Leagues
  3. La Liga
  4. Alaves vs Mallorca

Finished
Spain flag Spain

Alaves

€66.90m

25 Apr08:00
2 : 1

Mallorca

€89.00m

Preview

Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction La Liga

Alaves vs Mallorca prediction for Mendizorroza’s tense noon

The Alaves vs Mallorca prediction for Saturday, April 25, 2026 (kickoff 13:00 GMT) reads like a small La Liga survival story: two teams who know that one good afternoon can change a month of pressure. The latest updates and match context point to a fixture with a heavy relegation feel, played at Mendizorroza where the ball often moves fast, tackles arrive early, and the crowd treats every corner like a personal mission.

Match context: why this feels bigger than “just three points”

Deportivo Alavés and RCD Mallorca arrive with the kind of tension you can almost measure. When margins are thin, coaches tend to simplify: protect the center, win second balls, and make set pieces count. That fits both sides. Alavés usually look most comfortable when they can be compact without losing their bite going forward, while Mallorca often try to keep their lines tight and punish mistakes with quick, direct breaks.

The story gets better when you remember both teams have already written a surprise chapter recently. Alavés went to Athletic Bilbao on 2025-09-13 and won 0:1 despite huge betting odds of 6.3—proof they can suffer, wait, and strike. Mallorca, meanwhile, shocked Real Madrid on 2026-04-04, winning 2:1 at 5.8—proof they can turn one good spell into a famous result. That shared experience matters in tight matches: neither side will panic just because the script looks unfriendly.

How the game may look: tactics, tempo, and small battles

Expect Alavés to try to own the territory. At Mendizorroza, they often play like a team that wants the opponent to feel the touchline closing in—pressing in waves, pushing play wide, and turning throw-ins and corners into mini set-piece rehearsals. Mallorca’s best response is usually patience: keep the distances short, make Alavés cross under pressure, and then spring forward when the first pass after a regain is clean.

  • Possession lean: Alavés are projected to have more of the ball, which matches the home-team script.
  • Wide pressure vs. counters: If Alavés commit numbers forward, Mallorca’s fastest moments will come right after turnovers.
  • Set-piece mood: With a tense table backdrop, corners and free kicks can feel like open-play chances.

Head to head notes and market mood

The recent head to head is simple but telling: on 2024-11-01, Alavés won 1–0. The market liked them then too (Alavés 2.45, Mallorca 3.4), and it likes the home side again—just not overwhelmingly. For this weekend, bookmakers price:

  • Home win: 2.17
  • Draw: 3.4
  • Away win: 3.9

There is also a financial subplot. Mallorca’s squad value (€89.00m) is higher than Alavés’ (€66.90m), but money does not always buy comfort in a relegation-leaning afternoon kickoff. In these games, decision-making is the real currency.

NerdyTips AI: picks, stats, and the best betting angles

Now to the numbers behind our Alaves vs Mallorca prediction. NerdyTips’ model expects Alavés to edge the ball (54% vs 46%) and outshoot Mallorca (16 vs 10), but not to dominate the scoreboard. The projected accuracy is modest too: shots on goal sit at 4 for Alavés and 3 for Mallorca, hinting at a match with spells of pressure but limited clear-cut chances.

AI match flow forecast

  • Predicted final score: 1:1
  • First half score: 0:0
  • Total corners: 8 (Alavés 5, Mallorca 3)
  • Yellow cards: 4 total (2 + 2)

That profile—busy, competitive, and slightly cagey early—fits the 1x2 call. Our AI leans to X (Draw) at odds 3.4, but with a low confidence level of 2.0. In plain words for sports betting: the draw is plausible, yet not stable enough to be the only plan.

Most profitable bet: goals market

The stronger angle is the goals line. NerdyTips’ AI flags Over 1.5 goals as the most profitable bet, with odds 1.31 and a trust rating of 6.4/10 (confidence 6.5). The reason is simple: even if the first half stays at 0–0, the shot volume and corner count suggest the game should open up after the break. One goal forces the other team to chase, and suddenly 1–1 becomes a very natural landing point.

  • Best tip: Over 1.5 goals @ 1.31
  • Secondary lean: Draw (X) @ 3.4 (low confidence)

So, if you want one clean takeaway from this Alaves vs Mallorca prediction: expect tension early, more risk later, and a scoreboard that likely moves at least twice. Keep an eye on the betting odds, respect the head to head trend without overtrusting it, and remember—both teams have already proved this season that “surprise” is not a dirty word.

Read More

AI Predictions
Powered by NerdyTips Logo

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Alaves vs Mallorca

O1.5 -323

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -323
6/10

1x2 Tip

X 240

The match is expected to end in a draw
2/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -323

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -132

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -147

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

1.71
xG
1.2
54%
Ball Possession
46%
16
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
3
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.47
Expected Goals
1.18
3.7
Total Goals
2.7
1.6
Goals Scored
1.2
2.1
Goals Against
1.5
49%
Possession
49%
14
Total Shots
11.4
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.2
6.3
Shots off Goal
4.8
15.6
Fouls
11.4
4.7
Corners
4.1
1.2
Offsides
1.4
2.8
Yellow Cards
2.56
406
Total Passes
417

Overview Last 10 Matches

1
Wins
3
10
Over 1.5 Goals
9
6
Over 2.5 Goals
7
5
Over 3.5 Goals
1
8
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
1
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Alaves
2 - 3 - 4
Mallorca
Mallorca Mallorca 27-Sep-25
1:0
Alaves Alaves
Mallorca Mallorca 02-Mar-25
1:1
Alaves Alaves
Mallorca Mallorca 03-Dec-23
0:0
Alaves Alaves
Mallorca Mallorca 19-Apr-22
2:1
Alaves Alaves
Mallorca Mallorca 15-Feb-20
1:0
Alaves Alaves
Alaves Alaves 01-Nov-24
1:0
Mallorca Mallorca
Alaves Alaves 24-Feb-24
1:1
Mallorca Mallorca
Alaves Alaves 21-Aug-21
0:1
Mallorca Mallorca

Profile time Recent Matches of Alaves

13 MayW Alaves Alaves 1 Barcelona Barcelona 0
09 MayD Elche Elche 1 Alaves Alaves 1
02 MayL Alaves Alaves 2 Athletic C Athletic C 4
25 AprW Alaves Alaves 2 Mallorca Mallorca 1
21 AprL Real Madrid Real Madrid 2 Alaves Alaves 1
11 AprD Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3 Alaves Alaves 3
05 AprD Alaves Alaves 2 Osasuna Osasuna 2
22 MarW Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3 Alaves Alaves 4
13 MarD Alaves Alaves 1 Villarreal Villarreal 1
08 MarL Valencia Valencia 3 Alaves Alaves 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Mallorca

13 MayLGetafe Getafe 3 Mallorca Mallorca 1
10 MayDMallorca Mallorca 1 Villarreal Villarreal 1
01 MayWGirona Girona 0 Mallorca Mallorca 1
25 AprLAlaves Alaves 2 Mallorca Mallorca 1
21 AprDMallorca Mallorca 1 Valencia Valencia 1
12 AprWMallorca Mallorca 3 Vallecano Vallecano 0
04 AprWMallorca Mallorca 2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1
21 MarLElche Elche 2 Mallorca Mallorca 1
15 MarWMallorca Mallorca 2 Espanyol Espanyol 1
07 MarDOsasuna Osasuna 2 Mallorca Mallorca 2

Spain - La Liga Spain - La Liga

Team M G P
1 BarcelonaBarcelona3691-3291
2 Real MadridReal Madrid3570-3377
3 VillarrealVillarreal3667-4369
4 Atletico MadridAtletico3660-3966
5 Real BetisReal Betis3656-4457
6 Celta VigoCelta Vigo3651-4750
7 GetafeGetafe3631-3748
8 Real SociedadReal Sociedad3554-5544
9 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano3637-4344
10 Athletic ClubAthletic Club3640-5344
11 ValenciaValencia3639-5143
12 SevillaSevilla3646-5843
13 OsasunaOsasuna3643-4742
14 EspanyolEspanyol3640-5342
15 AlavesAlaves3642-5440
16 ElcheElche3647-5639
17 MallorcaMallorca3644-5539
18 LevanteLevante3644-5939
19 GironaGirona3537-5239
20 OviedoOviedo3526-5429
Video preview
Bankers
All Matches
Bet Builder
Log In
Register