Saudi-Arabia
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Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction for a tense Sea Derby
The Jeddah Derby is back on Friday, 2026-03-06 at 19:00 GMT, and this Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction leans slightly toward the hosts. With the league table, recent form, and squad news all pointing in one direction, it feels like a night where Al Ahli can control the rhythm—while still needing to watch the punch Al Ittihad carry on the break.
Match context, form, and what to expect tactically
Al Ahli arrive in outstanding league shape under Matthias Jaissle, sitting right at the top end of the table after 24 matches. They have put together a five-game winning run in the Pro League and, crucially, did it without conceding. That sort of defensive stretch usually changes how derbies are played: calmer in possession, more patient in buildup, and less panic when the game gets messy.
Al Ittihad, the defending champions, are chasing from 5th. Their league form has been mixed, yet they have shown they can raise their level in big moments—most notably the 1:1 away draw at Al Hilal on 2026-02-21 despite being priced around 6.25 to win. That result matters for bettors because it confirms Ittihad can survive long spells without the ball and still land a decisive counter.
Key team news and players who shape the betting angle
- Al Ahli have de-registered Roberto Firmino for the rest of the league season, with Wenderson Galeno taking that foreign-player slot.
- Ivan Toney is in Golden Boot form (23 league goals) and is the type of finisher who turns “good chances” into goals.
- Edouard Mendy’s recent shot-stopping has kept tight games on script for Al Ahli.
- Al Ittihad get a boost with their foreign stars back in training; the attack should feature Karim Benzema, Moussa Diaby, and Youssef En-Nesyri.
- Awad Al-Nashri is a doubt as he continues rehab from a muscle problem.
Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction: AI picks and betting odds
Market prices have Al Ahli as the favorites: home win 1.95, draw 3.8, away win 4.0. That aligns with the performance trend and a slightly higher squad market value (€170.78m vs €1.28.8555m), but derbies rarely follow spreadsheets perfectly. Our Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction therefore balances safety with value.
Best betting angles (with the numbers behind them)
- Best tip: 1X (Al Ahli win or draw) at 1.28 (confidence 4.7/10). It fits the expectation of Al Ahli controlling phases and avoiding defeat at home.
- 1X2 lean: Home win at 1.95 (trust 3.7/10). The AI points to a narrow edge rather than a runaway.
- Over 2.5 total goals at 1.70 (confidence 3.6/10). This is more “plausible” than “automatic,” but it matches the game script.
Stats, head to head, and a realistic score call
The latest head to head ended 2-2 on 2025-04.0, a reminder that Ittihad can trade punches in Jeddah. Still, the current model expects Al Ahli to have 53% possession, outshoot Ittihad 11 to 7 (on target 4 to 2), and edge corners 5 to 3. With discipline projected at 1 yellow for Al Ahli and 2 for Al Ittihad, the visitors may spend more time defending transitions.
Putting it together: expected final score 2-1, with a 1-0 half-time lean. If you want one smart bet, 1X is the steady option; if you want a bit more upside, pair the home win idea with the match leaning over 2.5 total goals.
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Warning
Derby match
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad1X -357
Al Ahli SC to win or draw with odds of -3571x2 Tip
1 -105
Al Ahli SC is expected to win with odds of -105Total Goals
Over 2.5 -152
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
Yes -175
Both teams are expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
1X&O1.5 -200
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goalsCorrect Score
2:1
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
|
|
9
-
5
-
4
|
|
Latest Matches
 Al Ittihad |
08-Nov-25
0:1
| Al Ahli SC  |
| Al Ittihad |
31-Oct-24
1:0
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
06-Oct-23
0:1
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
01-Oct-21
2:0
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
31-Oct-20
2:0
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
09-Aug-20
1:2
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
25-Nov-18
1:3
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
04-Feb-18
0:0
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ittihad |
03-Feb-17
1:4
| Al Ahli SC |
| Al Ahli SC |
06-Mar-26
3:1
| Al Ittihad |
Recent Matches of Al Ahli SC
| 11 May | W |
Al Taawon
| 1 |
Al-Ahli J
| 2 |
| 06 May | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 3 |
Al-Fateh
| 1 |
| 03 May | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 4 |
Al Okhdood
| 0 |
| 29 Apr | L |
Al-Nassr
| 2 |
Al-Ahli J
| 0 |
| 25 Apr | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 1 |
Machida Z
| 0 |
| 20 Apr | W |
Vissel Kobe
| 1 |
Al-Ahli J
| 2 |
| 17 Apr | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 2 |
Johor D
| 1 |
| 13 Apr | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 1 |
Al-Duhail SC
| 0 |
| 08 Apr | D |
Al-Fayha
| 1 |
Al-Ahli J
| 1 |
| 04 Apr | W |
Al-Ahli J
| 3 |
Damac
| 0 |
Recent Matches Of Al Ittihad
| 14 May | W |  Al-Ettifaq |
1 | Al-Ittihad |
3 |
| 10 May | W | Al-Ittihad |
2 |  Damac |
1 |
| 04 May | D | Al-Ittihad |
0 |  Al Kholood |
0 |
| 29 Apr | W |  Al Taawon |
0 | Al-Ittihad |
2 |
| 17 Apr | L |  Machida Z |
1 | Al-Ittihad |
0 |
| 14 Apr | W | Al-Ittihad |
1 |  Al Wahda FC |
0 |
| 08 Apr | L | Al-Ittihad |
3 |  NEOM |
4 |
| 03 Apr | W | Al-Ittihad |
1 |  Al-Hazm |
0 |
| 18 Mar | D | Al Kholood |
2 | Al Ittihad |
2 |
| 13 Mar | L |  Al Riyadh |
3 | Al Ittihad |
1 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Al-Nassr | 33 | 87-27 | 83 |
| 2 |
 Al-Hilal Saudi | 32 | 82-27 | 78 |
| 3 |
Al-Ahli Jeddah | 32 | 64-24 | 75 |
| 4 |
 Al-Qadisiyah | 33 | 78-33 | 74 |
| 5 |
 Al-Ittihad FC | 32 | 52-40 | 55 |
| 6 |
Al Taawon | 32 | 58-43 | 52 |
| 7 |
 Al-Ettifaq | 33 | 50-54 | 49 |
| 8 |
 NEOM | 32 | 42-45 | 44 |
| 9 |
 Al-Hazm | 33 | 36-57 | 39 |
| 10 |
Al-Fayha | 32 | 41-50 | 38 |
| 11 |
 Al Khaleej | 32 | 52-55 | 37 |
| 12 |
Al-Fateh | 33 | 41-55 | 36 |
| 13 |
 Al Kholood | 32 | 39-58 | 32 |
| 14 |
 Al Shabab | 32 | 41-54 | 32 |
| 15 |
Damac | 32 | 28-51 | 26 |
| 16 |
 Al Riyadh | 32 | 33-62 | 26 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 32 | 24-68 | 17 |
| 18 |
 Al Najma | 33 | 31-76 | 13 |
